No Winner Yet: Israel Exit Polls Point to Deadlock as Neither Bloc Reaches 61 Seats

Israel's election on Tuesday, 27 October 2026, has produced no winner yet. Exit polls published after polling stations closed at 22:00 Israel time point to a deadlocked Knesset, with neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot reaching the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat parliament. These are projections from voter surveys, not counted results, and they must not be read as the final outcome.

The first exit polls from Israel's three main television channels put the picture in the same broad shape: Netanyahu's bloc at about 50 seats and Eisenkot's bloc at 52 to 53 seats. Revised projections published later in the night moved the numbers closer together, with Kan 11 and Channel 13 putting both blocs at 51 seats each, while a revised Channel 12 projection put Netanyahu's bloc slightly ahead at 52 seats to 50. The variation between channels is itself part of the story — exit polls are estimates, and different broadcasters reached different parliaments from the same election night.

What the projections show, and what they do not

Within those projections, Netanyahu's Likud was projected to remain the largest single party, with about 24 to 25 seats, while Eisenkot's Yashar party was projected at about 21 to 23 seats. The opposition bloc in the projections includes Yashar alongside Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad, Yisrael Beiteinu and the Democrats. One broadcaster gave a much higher figure for Netanyahu's bloc, at 60 seats, standing apart from the other channels — a reminder that a single projection should not be treated as a result.

The Arab parties were projected to hold a significant share of the balance, at about 17 to 18 seats combined for the Joint List and Ra'am. That would make them potentially decisive in any coalition arithmetic, even though forming a government with them has been ruled out by most opposition figures, with the Democrats' Yair Golan named as an exception in reporting of the projections. Eisenkot has also ruled out forming a government with the Arab parties, according to election-night reporting, which complicates his route to 61 even if his bloc finishes ahead in the projections.

A record turnout, and a long count ahead

Turnout was reported at 77.7 per cent by the Central Elections Committee, the highest in more than two decades and about seven percentage points higher than in the 2022 election. It was the first national election since the Hamas-led attacks of 7 October 2023 and the wars that followed in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, and the campaign was widely fought over Netanyahu's wartime leadership and accountability for the security failures of that day.

The official count had barely begun when the exit polls were published. Early updates from the Central Elections Committee covered only a small fraction of ballots, and the distribution of seats will remain provisional until more votes are counted. Double-envelope ballots — cast by soldiers, diplomats, hospital patients and others voting away from their home polling station — are counted later and can still shift a seat or two. Final results are expected to take days, with official publication due by 4 November.

What happens next

With no bloc at 61 in any of the main projections, the next stage belongs to coalition negotiations and to President Isaac Herzog, who will consult party leaders once the official count firms up. Netanyahu could remain in office in a caretaker capacity while those talks continue, and Eisenkot has said he intends to move quickly to try to form a government. Until the Central Elections Committee publishes a fuller count, however, every seat figure in this article remains a projection. MagnetDaily will update this story as the official count progresses and will not call a winner before the count supports one.